The potential Russian invasion of Ukraine

It is headline news that over 100,000 Russian troops are amassed near the Ukraine-Russia border. It does not take a genius to work-out that this is what happens before a war begins. But it is important to note that Ukraine has been fighting a low-intensity hybrid war against Russian forces in its eastern Donbas region, ever since Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, provided arms and resources to ‘separatists’ in east Ukraine – a cover up of the fact that these ‘separatists’ are probably Russian military, wearing Russian military uniform without the insignia. This is also the case in illegally-annexed Crimea. A now erased Russian court case inadvertently confirmed the official existence of Russian regular troops operating in occupied Ukrainian territory. The only ongoing war in Europe has taken the lives of 14,000 Ukrainians and has displaced millions more.

*Military situation in November 2021 | Stalemate since 2015*

Why Ukraine?

But why is Ukraine so interesting to Putin? Very simple – a buffer zone between democracy and autocracy. Russia sees Ukraine as a battleground for if there was ever a battle between the east and west. In WW2 for example, Ukraine was the main battle ground between the soviets and the axis powers. Why bring the battle to your own border, when you can have Ukraine as a battleground instead? This is the main reason why Putin does not want Ukraine to become a NATO member, as he would never be able to claim Ukraine without a whole NATO alliance getting involved.

Other reasons to conquer Ukraine:

Direct gas pipeline to Europe
Large land mass
25th most powerful army in the world
Join occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland (Crimea was annexed back in 2014, primarily due to its warm-water ports and access to the Black Sea, a place that Russia can use to move its navy year-round whilst its other harbours are frozen in winter. However, Crimea is not self-sufficient, hence the need to join it with Russia)
Natural resources like minerals, oil, coal, natural gas, Uranium (most of which is in the occupied Donbas region)
Extremely fertile land (which is why grain is a major export)

The History

History, of course, plays a crucial role in the events of today. Vladimir Putin has revealed in an article he wrote, entitled ‘On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians’, as well as in a recent interview, that he believes that Ukrainians and Russians are ‘one people’ and that Ukraine is a ‘breakaway province’ of Russia that should be united through diplomacy or force. On this premise, Ukrainians have the same claim that Russia should be part of Ukraine, rather than Ukraine part of Russia. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in the 20^th century and had been absorbed by the Russian Empire before that, leading to an entangled history between the two ethnicities. Yet, it is important to note that most Ukrainians see themselves as distinct from Russians, and have a separate language, culture, and social mindset, as well as a separate independent history, in which Russia is viewed as an oppressive occupying foreign power. Putin seeks to end the embarrassment of the Soviet Union’s collapse and restore ‘historical Russian lands’ to their former glory.

But let us go back a thousand years to the Kyivan Rus. The Kyvian domain of the entire Rus was formed with the help of Normans, and the general Slavic population originating from migration over 100s of years from various places, but definitely not from the North East where Russia is today. See the confusion? ‘Rus’ and ‘Russia’. No one would blame you for making the connection, and this is how Russia like to claim history when they are entirely different. Some Ukrainians even refer to Russians as Muscovites, rather than Russian, and I will explain why.

*Kyivan Rus 980-1054 https://euromaidanpress.com/2016/11/05/princess-olha-of-kyiv-a-golden-page-in-ukrainian-history/*

In the northeast, Vladimir-Suzdal (and later Moscow) formed the core from which developed the future Russian state. But this state did not form until second half of the 13th century. In addition, it was formed under the leadership of a branch of the Rurik dynasty. The Rurik dynasty were the princes of the Kyivan Rus and descendents of varangian (viking) prince Rurik. Meanwhile, Ukraine was first mentioned in the Hypatian Codex in 1187 as the name of the territory of Pereyaslav Principality meaning “outskirts”, and later the term expanded to other parts of the Kyivan Rus. Ukraine has always been centred around Kyiv (the former capital of the Kyivan Rus), Ukraine stands on much of the historic Kyivan Rus, and Russia is just a later off-branch. Thus, Russia is in fact a break-away province of Ukraine.

The topic of Crimea

I would argue that Crimea is neither Ukrainian nor Russian, but the land of the Crimean Tatars. Nonetheless, Crimea has been part of Ukraine under autonomous status in harmony with Ukraine. That was until Russia invaded and took over everything. Now Crimea has no autonomy and is ruled by Russia, despite their installation of a puppet government.

Language

Yes, language laws were passed in Ukraine which requires Ukrainian to be the language of study in state schools. The point of the law is that institutions should use the Ukrainian language. Some laws also have quotas on how many Ukrainian songs should be played on the radio and quotas in other media including books. No one is denying that people speak Russian in Ukraine, but this is exactly the problem. This dilutes the Ukrainian culture, and increases the chance for Russian influence. No one is banning Russian, Ukraine is just putting a limit on it so it cannot take over the culture. It is a right of a country that its citizens use the national language above all others. I, myself, speak Ukrainian at home and watch films with Ukrainian dubbing (when possible), just because of the fact it is a beautiful language.

Furthermore, the claim that Putin is ‘defending Russian speakers’ is false. Many Russian-speaking Ukrainians spoke out against the Kremlin’s military intervention in Ukraine, rejecting Russian claims of any rights violations. Thousands more went even further, taking up arms against Russian hybrid forces in the east of the country.

The verdict

Putin is a bully. Many Russians do not want war, nor do they want Ukraine. They even took to the streets in 2014 against the start of the war back then. Putin is doing all of these actions to distract the rest of the Russian population from the corruption and scandal of his own government, and even to leave a legacy of conquering another country.

However, Ukrainians are proud, even my gran would pick up a gun and fight if she had to. So if Russia invades, they will be met with extensive resistance.